Statistical Advance: Race To The Chase Week 3: Analyzing The LifeLock.com 400 At Chicagoland Speedway

(While I’m trying to remember what my name is, let alone write about NASCAR, I’ll be filling in here with posts courtesy of NASCAR Media. Like what were you expecting me to do – link to John Daly?)

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (July 6, 2009) – Kasey Kahne’s 15th-place finish at Daytona International Speedway last Saturday night was enough to vault him back into the top 12 of the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points standings. His entry inside the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup cutoff made it seven different teams in the top 12, the most after 18 races since the Chase field was increased to 12 in 2007. Here’s the breakdown:

2007: Five (Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush Fenway Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Dale Earnhardt Inc.);

2008: Five (JGR, HMS, RCR, RFR and Gillett-Evernham Motorsports);

2009: Seven (Stewart-Haas Racing, HMS, Penske Racing, RFR, JGR, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing and Richard Petty Motorsports).

One marquee team is surprisingly absent from the 2009 list: Richard Childress Racing. After putting three of its teams in the Chase last season, all four of its cars are outside the top 12 at the midpoint of 2009.

Most surprising of the four drivers might be Kevin Harvick, who sits 26th in the points.

Harvick has suffered 14 consecutive finishes outside the top 10, including three straight outside the top 25.

But a race at Chicagoland Speedway may cure any ills for Harvick. He won the first two races there – in 2001-02 – and has a series-best average finish of 7.4.

Harvick’s last three Chicagoland finishes have been inside the top five, and over the last four he has a Driver Rating of 114.9 (third-best) and a series-best Average Running Position of 5.6.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top 12 at Chicagoland Speedway

Driver Races Poles Wins

Top Fives

Top 10s

DNFs

Average Finish

Driver Rating

1

Tony Stewart

8

1

2

6

6

1

10.3

114.3

2

Jeff Gordon

8

1

1

4

5

1

10.1

93.4

3

Jimmie Johnson

7

1

0

5

6

1

8.1

109.3

4

Kurt Busch

8

0

0

0

5

1

17.3

85.9

5

Carl Edwards

4

0

0

1

1

0

23.5

81.5

6

Denny Hamlin

3

0

0

0

0

0

23.7

80.2

7

Ryan Newman

7

1

1

2

4

1

17.6

75.2

8

Kyle Busch

4

0

1

2

2

0

7.8

115.3

9

Greg Biffle

6

0

0

1

1

0

12.8

98.2

10

Matt Kenseth

8

0

0

2

4

0

9.8

120.4

11

Juan Pablo Montoya

2

0

0

0

0

0

16.5

66.8

12

Kasey Kahne

5

0

0

0

0

2

29.4

61.1

Selected Driver Highlights
Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Chicagoland Speedway. The Loop Data statistics – Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. – in this release, however, cover the last four races at Chicagoland. NASCAR’s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.

Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)
• One top five, one top 10
• Average finish of 12.8
• Average Running Position of 12.6, ninth-best
• Driver Rating of 98.2, seventh-best
• 39 Fastest Laps Run, eighth-most
• Series-high 271 Green Flag Passes
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.539 mph, seventh-fastest
• 713 Laps in the Top 15 (66.6%), eighth-most
• 114 Quality Passes, sixth-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 Interstate Batteries Toyota)
• One win, two top fives, two top 10s
• Average finish of 7.8
• Average Running Position of 6.6, third-best
• Driver Rating of 115.3, second-best
• 72 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.135 mph, fifth-fastest
• 959 Laps in the Top 15 (89.5%), fourth-most
• 142 Quality Passes, third-most

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)
• One win, two top fives, three top 10s
• Average finish of 15.3
• Average Running Position of 11.5, seventh-best
• Driver Rating of 95.0, eighth-best
• 55 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
• 226 Green Flag Passes, seventh-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.422 mph, eighth-fastest
• 787 Laps in the Top 15 (73.5%), seventh-most
• 121 Quality Passes, fifth-most

Jeff Gordon (No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet)
• One win, four top fives, five top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.1
• Average Running Position of 11.8, eighth-best
• Driver Rating of 93.4, ninth-best
• 56 Fastest Laps Run, fifth-most
• 232 Green Flag Passes, sixth-most
• 802 Laps in the Top 15 (74.9%), sixth-most
• 146 Quality Passes, second-most

Kevin Harvick (No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevrolet)
• Two wins, five top fives, six top 10s
• Average finish of 7.4
• Series-best Average Running Position of 5.6
• Driver Rating of 114.9, third-best
• 37 Fastest Laps Run, ninth-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.173 mph, fourth-fastest
• Series-high 1,031 Laps in the Top 15 (96.3%)
• 111 Quality Passes, ninth-most

Jimmie Johnson (No. 48 Lowe’s/Kobalt Tools Chevrolet)
• Five top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 8.1
• Average Running Position of 8.6, sixth-best
• Driver Rating of 109.3, fifth-best
• 87 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.193 mph, third-fastest
• 923 Laps in the Top 15 (86.2%), fifth-most
• 141 Quality Passes, fourth-most

Matt Kenseth (No. 17 R+L Carriers Ford)
• Two top fives, four top 10s
• Average finish of 9.8
• Average Running Position of 6.4, second-best
• Series-best Driver Rating of 120.4
• Series-high 156 Fastest Laps Run
• Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 168.543 mph
• 976 Laps in the Top 15 (91.1%), second-most
• Series-high 148 Quality Passes

Tony Stewart (No. 14 Burger King Chevrolet)
• Two wins, six top fives, six top 10s; one pole
• Average finish of 10.3
• Average Running Position of 6.7, fourth-best
• Driver Rating of 114.3, fourth-best
• 114 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 168.393 mph, second-fastest
• 976 Laps in the Top 15 (91.1%), second-most
• 113 Quality Passes, seventh-most

Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)
• One top five, two top 10s
• Average finish of 9.3
• Average Running Position of 8.6, fifth-best
• Driver Rating of 104.8, sixth-best
• 31 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
• Average Green Flag Speed of 167.762 mph, sixth-fastest
• 669 Laps in the Top 15 (83.2%), 11th-most

At Chicagoland Speedway:
History

• Construction of the Chicagoland Speedway began in August 1999.
• The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Chicago was July 14, 2001.
• The first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race was held on July 15, 2001.

Notebook
• There have been eight NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Chicagoland Speedway.
• 14 drivers have competed in all eight races.
• Todd Bodine won the first pole.
• There has been a different pole winner after every qualifying session (qualifying was canceled in 2008).
• Kevin Harvick won the first two races.
• Six different drivers have won races, led by Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart, each with two.
• Kyle Busch won the 2008 race from the pole, the first time a driver won from the pole. It was also the first time a driver had won from a top-five starting position.  Kevin Harvick won the 2002 race from the 32nd starting position, the deepest in the field that a race winner ever started at Chicago.
• Kevin Harvick has a 7.4 average finish in eight races, the best of any driver with more than one start there.
• One Chicago race has gone beyond the scheduled distance (2006 – 270 laps).

NASCAR in Illinois
• There have been 10 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Illinois.
• 71 drivers all-time in NASCAR three national series have their home state recorded as Illinois.
• There have been four race winners from Illinois in NASCAR’s three national series:

Driver

NSCS

NNS

NCWTS

Fred Lorenzen

26

0

0

Tom Pistone

2

0

0

Erik Darnell

0

0

2

Bobby Dotter

0

1

0

Chicagoland Speedway Data

Race #: 19 of 36 (7-11-09)

Track Size: 1.5 miles

Race Length: 400 miles (267 laps)

Banking/Corners: 18 degrees

Banking/Backstretch: 5 degrees

Banking/Tri-Oval: 11 degrees

Driver Rating at Chicagoland

Matt Kenseth                 120.4

Kyle Busch                   115.3

Kevin Harvick                 114.9

Tony Stewart                 114.3

Jimmie Johnson             109.3

Brian Vickers                 104.8

Greg Biffle                       98.2

Dale Earnhardt Jr.            95.0

Jeff Gordon                      93.4

Kurt Busch                      85.9

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2008 races (4 total) at Chicagoland.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: None (weather)

2008 race winner: Kyle Busch, (133.996 mph, 7-12-08)

Track qualifying record: Jimmie Johnson (188.147 mph, 28.701 secs.,

7-8-05)

Track race record: Kevin Harvick (136.832 mph, 7-14-02)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 50-55 laps, based on fuel mileage.

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